Monday, January 28, 2008

China ripes for future growth

In with the new (capitalism), and out with the old (communism).

After reading Jim Rogers' book on China, I couldn't agree more.

China in its current state, is a producing country. Because of its vast cheap labor and geographic location, China became an ideal location for all types of manufacturing activities. The rise in economic activities brought urbanization to the country. I can't help but think that China in its current state is much like the U.S. back in 1920s. The U.S. then was producing cars, oils, steel, and other commodities. And after WWII, the U.S. slowly became a consumption based economy as everyone moved into the big cities, standard of living rises. And that is exactly what is happening in China now.

Urbanization and economic prosperity will create the new middle class in China. China will then turn into a consumption base economy. As the standard of living rise in China (which will cause a rise in workers' compensation), even the Chinese companies would have to look elsewhere for cheap labor (southeast Asia- Vietnam, Cambodia, or Eastern European countries). This type of economic activities will continue to pass on as companies continue to seek cheap labor. Countries with political stability will follow the footsteps of China- just as how China followed the U.S.

This economics "pass-thru" from country to country is nothing new. There was the Dutch before the period of colonization. Then there was the British during the period of colonization. After the British, it was the U.S.- I can't help but think China would be the next stop. This is a cycle, a capitalism cycle if you will. As companies seek cheap labor and resources to produce, they will go to the countries with the best conditions (political stability). And once the investment pours into that country, the country would prosper. As the country prospers, the standard of living rises- which will cause an upward swing in wages and prices for resources. That country will no longer be competitive for manufacturing activities and it would then turn into a consumption based economy- the manufacturing activities would then move to its next target- benefiting that country the same way it did for the previous country.


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