http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=caf
MORGAN STANLEY CHINA (CAF)
Prospectus:
http://www.morganstanleyindividual.com/Markets/IPOCenter/Prospectus/?DocID=p_CAFMS
This close-end fund allow you to invest in the China A share market. Unlike many other funds that invest in China, which most of them are buying H share (Chinese companies that are listed on Hong Kong Exchange). Currently, only Chinese citizens and qualified institutional investors are allowed in investing in China A share. Be extremely careful, that the Chinese stock market (A share in particular) is extremely over-valued by traditional metrics. The fund is also very thinly traded (avg vol: 400k). This makes CAF a extreme risky trading instrument IMHO.
I personally think FXI is a better way to invest in the Chinese market.
Prospectus for FXI: http://www.ishares.com/content/stream.jsp?url=/content/repository/material/prospectus/ftse_xinhua.pdf&mimeType=application/pdf
Here are the reasons why:
1. FXI is a index tracking ETF- low expense and not as thinly traded (avg vol: 6m)
2. The valuation is way more reasonable due to the fact the fund invest in ADRs/H share.
Monday, December 31, 2007
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
January Barometer
"Since 1950, there have been 20 down Januarys for the S&P 500, all of which preceded a new or extended bear market, or a flat market, except for one year, according to the Almanac. But in eight of those years, the broader market ended flat or with slight gains."
http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/26/markets/january/index.htm
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=january+barometer&btnG=Search
The January Barometer is one of the more "reliable" indicator. Of course, there is no sure thing in the market (nothing has 100% guarantee). Your job as an investor/trader is to extract the most return for the risk taken. Risk is defined by the chance that sh*t can fall apart (unpredictable events ei: 9-11). No one can predict the future accurately, but you can always react to the driving forces of the market - greed and fear. Warren Buffett and other "investment gurus" are very good at "gaming" the market knowing the driving forces behind it.
"View Mr. Market as having a disorder and being in a manic depressive state and take advantage of this state of disorder." (See SEA's April 1998 newsletter for full quote.)
- Warren Buffett
Most of these gurus are can be label "contrarian" to a certain extend. It is by going against conventional wisdoms that these gurus were able to be successful in investing. Does that mean shorting everytime the market goes up and buying everytime the market comes down? No.
As to how to be a contrarian or add contrarian flavor in when building a style of investing/trading...that's for us to figure out.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/26/markets/january/index.htm
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=january+barometer&btnG=Search
The January Barometer is one of the more "reliable" indicator. Of course, there is no sure thing in the market (nothing has 100% guarantee). Your job as an investor/trader is to extract the most return for the risk taken. Risk is defined by the chance that sh*t can fall apart (unpredictable events ei: 9-11). No one can predict the future accurately, but you can always react to the driving forces of the market - greed and fear. Warren Buffett and other "investment gurus" are very good at "gaming" the market knowing the driving forces behind it.
"View Mr. Market as having a disorder and being in a manic depressive state and take advantage of this state of disorder." (See SEA's April 1998 newsletter for full quote.)
- Warren Buffett
Most of these gurus are can be label "contrarian" to a certain extend. It is by going against conventional wisdoms that these gurus were able to be successful in investing. Does that mean shorting everytime the market goes up and buying everytime the market comes down? No.
As to how to be a contrarian or add contrarian flavor in when building a style of investing/trading...that's for us to figure out.
Monday, December 24, 2007
Randomness continues: Closing out 2007
Recently, I took a 24 hour road trip from FL all the way back in NY in a little Japanese coupe/hatchback - Toyota Celica. How on earth can this trip has anything possibly do with investing? Sit tight...
First, let me reflect on my friend's Toyota Celica. It was a used car with a good amount of mileage on it. I must say, the Celica isn't as roomy and practical as a Honda Accord, it doesn't accelerate as fast as a Ford Mustang, and it certainly can't handle corners as quickly as a BMW 3 series. But it doesn't matter. The car was very well-built. On the highway doing some-what-over-the-limit speed, the car was as steady and reliable...well as a Toyota should be. Everytime I open up the throttle, the little Japanese hatchback just bugging for more. No squeaks, no rattles. This little bugger can't outhandle a BMW, but when you grab on to its steering wheel it takes you right where you wanted. This car sure as hell isn't perfect, but for $7k, it is amazing value and after spending 1200 miles with it, I simply adore it.
This car, a 2000-2001 Toyota, also marked the end of an era. It was the last time where Toyota has built something that is cheap, fun and reliable. Toyota has since turned into a generic corporation with numbers/goals to reach every quarters to satisfy the on-going ambition of being the world's largest car maker. No longer does Toyota build "cars". They now build what I call "econbox" or Box with wheels. Every cars in the current Toyota line-up are as boring as your daytime television program. Not to mention Toyota also started cutting corners on the quality of the cars they build. I sat in the new Camry and I just wasn't impress by its interior. And I wasn't the only one. If you browse around for Camry reviews, there are a lot of complains about the new Camry interior fit and finish. And then there is the new Scion brand. Scion isn't about building quality and fun cars, its just another marketing scheme by Toyota. I can go on about how Toyota is no longer the humble Japanese car maker from the 80s that try to enter the U.S. market with quality built cars. But to tie to my point: I would not invest in Toyota at the moment. Sure, it has gained a sure foothold of the U.S. market since the 80s. Sure, it is stealing market shares from the Big 3(2.5). But Toyota is no longer a corporation with personality. No longer does this car maker need to make desirable cars because they already in-still its brands in the consumers' mind. No longer does it need to build a fun car- only need to market another generic car in a diff. brand. And don't even get me started with the Prius. Toyota was the underdog, the new kid on the block, now it's all grown. No longer does it need to be recognized, no longer does it need to be humble. Toyota has forgotten where it came from.
My investing/trading philosophy is very much the same as my philosophy on cars. I like to buy and trade what I understand, what I know. I like companies and cars that provide "value". I like underdogs that struggle to be recognized. And if I didn't make the point already: you are who you are. Your trading/investing style should reflect who you are. For example: I am impatient- hence, I don't look to hold a stock/position for more than a couple months. My style of trading doesn't fit anyone but me (or someone with similar personalities).
Note: In closing out 2007, unless there is some disaster waiting to happen next couple of days, I'm proud to announce that our return has trounced the S&P500. We have met our goal on beating the index with a good amount of cash waiting to be deploy. And we are fortunate to dodge the Credit crunch bullets. 2008, here we come...
Have a Happy Holiday/New Year.
First, let me reflect on my friend's Toyota Celica. It was a used car with a good amount of mileage on it. I must say, the Celica isn't as roomy and practical as a Honda Accord, it doesn't accelerate as fast as a Ford Mustang, and it certainly can't handle corners as quickly as a BMW 3 series. But it doesn't matter. The car was very well-built. On the highway doing some-what-over-the-limit speed, the car was as steady and reliable...well as a Toyota should be. Everytime I open up the throttle, the little Japanese hatchback just bugging for more. No squeaks, no rattles. This little bugger can't outhandle a BMW, but when you grab on to its steering wheel it takes you right where you wanted. This car sure as hell isn't perfect, but for $7k, it is amazing value and after spending 1200 miles with it, I simply adore it.
This car, a 2000-2001 Toyota, also marked the end of an era. It was the last time where Toyota has built something that is cheap, fun and reliable. Toyota has since turned into a generic corporation with numbers/goals to reach every quarters to satisfy the on-going ambition of being the world's largest car maker. No longer does Toyota build "cars". They now build what I call "econbox" or Box with wheels. Every cars in the current Toyota line-up are as boring as your daytime television program. Not to mention Toyota also started cutting corners on the quality of the cars they build. I sat in the new Camry and I just wasn't impress by its interior. And I wasn't the only one. If you browse around for Camry reviews, there are a lot of complains about the new Camry interior fit and finish. And then there is the new Scion brand. Scion isn't about building quality and fun cars, its just another marketing scheme by Toyota. I can go on about how Toyota is no longer the humble Japanese car maker from the 80s that try to enter the U.S. market with quality built cars. But to tie to my point: I would not invest in Toyota at the moment. Sure, it has gained a sure foothold of the U.S. market since the 80s. Sure, it is stealing market shares from the Big 3(2.5). But Toyota is no longer a corporation with personality. No longer does this car maker need to make desirable cars because they already in-still its brands in the consumers' mind. No longer does it need to build a fun car- only need to market another generic car in a diff. brand. And don't even get me started with the Prius. Toyota was the underdog, the new kid on the block, now it's all grown. No longer does it need to be recognized, no longer does it need to be humble. Toyota has forgotten where it came from.
My investing/trading philosophy is very much the same as my philosophy on cars. I like to buy and trade what I understand, what I know. I like companies and cars that provide "value". I like underdogs that struggle to be recognized. And if I didn't make the point already: you are who you are. Your trading/investing style should reflect who you are. For example: I am impatient- hence, I don't look to hold a stock/position for more than a couple months. My style of trading doesn't fit anyone but me (or someone with similar personalities).
Note: In closing out 2007, unless there is some disaster waiting to happen next couple of days, I'm proud to announce that our return has trounced the S&P500. We have met our goal on beating the index with a good amount of cash waiting to be deploy. And we are fortunate to dodge the Credit crunch bullets. 2008, here we come...
Have a Happy Holiday/New Year.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)