Monday, November 12, 2007

Life takes Visa, but Mastercard is priceless.

So, Visa has finally filed for IPO.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071109/visa_ipo.html?.v=1

Visa is own by a group of well-known banks. JPM and BAC together own 34.8% of Visa. Citigroup, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp and National City own another 24% of Visa.

Now, this chart is a very rough comp. b/w Mastercard and Visa. We know that Mastercard IPO was a success. Mastercard stock went up 5x since its IPO. The problem with this chart is that I'm not sure if Visa is selling out all of its shares to public, which they value at $10 bil. Or if it's selling ~40% stake (60% own by the rest of the banks). If Visa is selling 40% stake and valued the stake at $10 bil. , then it would fetch a $25 bil. market cap. That is in-line with Mastercard's current market cap.

Assuming that Visa fetch the same price/market cap as Mastercard, then its IPO is NOT worth buying into. Even though Visa has a bigger share of the market, it fails to bring its top-line to its bottom-line. The lower net income margin is causing Visa to earn about the same amount as Mastercard (not looking too deep into the quality of the earnings). Visa has also agreed to settle a lawsuit recently- which would cost Visa ~$2 billion dollars. On the surface, Visa looks attractive because of Mastercard's previous success. However, Mastercard's successful IPO launch was due to the fact that it was vastly underpriced. But that is not the case for Visa (unless $10 bil it plans to raise = 100% stake, which I highly doubt at the moment).

However much I love IPOs. Visa is a no-go for me.

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