Thursday, January 10, 2008

Positive/Optimistic Market Commentary




I'm known for being gloom and doom for 2+ months now. My major portfolio position, which consists of 90% of my portfolio is SHORT (betting the stock will go DOWN) and I'm up 10%+ on that trade. Aside from temporarily oversold condition- which the market would bounce back up slightly on shorts covering. I really haven't read/see anything that's positive for the market. But I thought I found a piece of good news today. The headline read:

" Alcoa poised to open higher on 76% surge in quarterly profit"

Well, excellent. Alcoa, one of the biggest aluminum maker in the world reported a jump in profit! Alcoa is also a Dow 30 stock and its financial health is a good indication of the overall economic strength (if economy is expanding, we would use more metal to build shit - airplanes, buildings, cars...etc.). Reading deeper into the article, I've found the following:

"For the recent fourth quarter, Alcoa reported a profit of $632 million, or 75 cents a share, up from $359 million or 41 cents a share a year ago.
Total revenue fell to $7.39 billion from $7.84 billion due to lower aluminum prices and the exclusion of its soft alloy extrusion segment that is now part of a joint venture.
Excluding a favorable restructuring adjustment and a tax benefit stemming from the business sales, earnings would have come in at 36 cents a share."

So both revenue and earnings FELL from last year. However, because Alcoa has beat analysts' earnings expectation of 33 cents a share, the stock traded higher pre-open.

However, the overall picture Alcoa painted is NOT a good one. Well, I guess I would have to stay gloom and doom for the time being.

** As for the picture, it is the first pic that came out of Google image search, keyword "positive"

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