January Barometer

"Since 1950, there have been 20 down Januarys for the S&P 500, all of which preceded a new or extended bear market, or a flat market, except for one year, according to the Almanac. But in eight of those years, the broader market ended flat or with slight gains."

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/26/markets/january/index.htm

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=january+barometer&btnG=Search

The January Barometer is one of the more "reliable" indicator. Of course, there is no sure thing in the market (nothing has 100% guarantee). Your job as an investor/trader is to extract the most return for the risk taken. Risk is defined by the chance that sh*t can fall apart (unpredictable events ei: 9-11). No one can predict the future accurately, but you can always react to the driving forces of the market - greed and fear. Warren Buffett and other "investment gurus" are very good at "gaming" the market knowing the driving forces behind it.

"View Mr. Market as having a disorder and being in a manic depressive state and take advantage of this state of disorder." (See SEA's April 1998 newsletter for full quote.)
- Warren Buffett

Most of these gurus are can be label "contrarian" to a certain extend. It is by going against conventional wisdoms that these gurus were able to be successful in investing. Does that mean shorting everytime the market goes up and buying everytime the market comes down? No.

As to how to be a contrarian or add contrarian flavor in when building a style of investing/trading...that's for us to figure out.