Tuesday, March 13, 2007

"I'm NOT a technician, BUT **pull out a chart**..."


Another big sell off today. Blame it on those sub-prime mortgage guys...it's THEIR faults the market sold-off. Look at the chart for the S&P 500. The sell off began two weeks ago was nothing but a blip on the chart and it doesn't seem like its out of the pattern there.

Ok, so you not that big of a chartist/technician. What about the WEAK 0.1% in retail sales vs 0.4% expected? What about the sub-prime blow up? Isn't it cause for concern?

O sure, like we didn't know the retail sale is going to be weak because of the weather. Like we didn't know that sub-prime mortgage lenders are going to blow after the housing slow-down (I refused to call it a bubble burst because the price here in New York hasn't fell nearly as hard as the rest of the nation- its NOT a bubble- look at the Nasdaq 10 year chart then come back to me).

So fine, we didn't know who held those risky MBS papers or the sub-prime lenders sold it out at all. But you sure know that as interest rate rises + housing price fall = sub prime disaster right?

So you don't know about that until today. Fine. How about the people who has the buying power to move the market? The mutual funds, the hedge funds, the institutions and alike...you think they ought to know these stuffs because they are messing around with billion of dollars.

My point is that everyone knew about the overbought market in China, the sub prime disaster and the weaker (Goldilocks) economy. And these factors didn't just pop out of no where overnight (except for the China sold off- but when you have a market that was up 103% in one year, do you expect anyone to take profit? I guess not.), these factors have been creeping in the economy for MONTHS.

So the sell off is nothing but a breather IMHO. It's nothing more but a blip on the chart. Hey, look at that, the P/E ratio of the S&P wasn't going UP for the last 2 years...What?!

So this wasn't like 2000 when we had crazy valuation on stocks. U.S. equities are trading at a relatively cheap valuation when compared to the year 1999 and 2000. So IF the market does turn BEAR on us...it wouldn't be because stocks are expensive. I think sub-prime will not cause the market to go berserk, but Iran might just do.

P.S.: Anyone look at Goldman's earning today? Seem fine to me. I would buy GS on any dip. Just my humble opinion.

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